New Poll: A Warning to any No Labels Candidates

Even with their dream candidates leading their “unity ticket,” the No Labels third-party presidential bid is likely to finish fourth, according to our new national survey.¹ This poll is a flashing red light to any potential candidate considering the No Labels nomination.

Third Way worked with G Squared Public Strategies principal Robert Jones on a poll to test a No Labels Party ticket’s viability in the 2024 election. While Amb. Nikki Haley has made clear that she has no interest in being on the ticket, we tested her as the sample No Labels presidential candidate because her high name ID and appeal to centrist Republicans makes her an excellent proxy—and likely the highwater mark—for anyone No Labels could recruit to run. We then paired her with Rep. Dean Phillips because he is the logical counterpart Democrat for the ticket: the most prominent Democrat open to challenging Biden/Harris, and someone affiliated with No Labels through the House Problem Solvers Caucus.

The goal of the survey was to test an ideal ticket in an environment conducive to third party success and see how it fares under expected campaign circumstances. The conclusion is clear: a No Labels Party ticket would not have the slightest hope of winning the presidency in 2024. That conclusion holds even if it were led by a prominent, respected, and well-known Republican like Nikki Haley.

In the interest of transparency (in contrast to No Labels, which either hides or releases only partial polling data), the entire survey is available here. Here are the major findings:

1. The two-way race is tied.

Before we tested the Haley ticket, we tested a two-way race. The results track most of the current public polling.

• Head-to-head, Trump holds a 0.5%-point lead over Biden, 45.8%-45.3%.
• Their favorable/unfavorable ratings are tenths of percentage points apart. (Biden: 42.0-56.4% fav/unfav and Trump: 42.6-56.1% fav/unfav)

2. The No Labels ticket’s allure is dim and fades quickly.

Only a third of the electorate would even entertain voting for an unnamed No Labels ticket. (Again, we tested this before we named Haley.) That recedes quickly when details are added:

• 37% are open to supporting a ticket featuring “a Republican and Democrat as the presidential and vice-presidential nominees who will commit to working closely with both parties to find commonsense solutions to America’s biggest problems.” But only one-third of them (12%) indicate strong support.
• In a three-way matchup between Biden, Trump and an unnamed “moderate, independent” candidate, the third-party candidate wins only 16%, and Trump’s lead over Biden grows from 0.5 to 2.5 points. Of those who still support this “moderate, independent” in the three-way race, fewer than half say their support is definite.
• An unnamed “moderate independent” candidate siphons 23 percentage points more of would-be Biden voters than would-be Trump voters when we moved from the two-way race to the three-way.
• “Double Haters” (those who dislike Biden and Trump) marginally break for Biden over Trump in the two-way race, 38-34%, and make up about 20% of the electorate. However, an unnamed moderate independent gets the support of less than half of Double Haters. No Labels’ unnamed candidate can’t even retain the voters who should be their base: those who disapprove of both Biden and Trump.

3. A Haley-led ticket finishes fourth.

When we asked about a third-party ticket led by Nikki Haley, we found it to be non-competitive. Indeed, it performs worse than an unnamed moderate, independent ticket:

• Nikki Haley has 80% name ID and boosts a better net approval rating than either Biden or Trump.
• Despite her strengths, a No Labels ticket with Haley as the nominee gets just 9% of the vote, losing badly to Trump and Biden and trailing even RFK, Jr. (13%). Thus, a No Labels ticket led by one of the most well-known and respected GOP leaders available is more likely to finish fourth than win a single electoral vote.
• Both Nikki Haley and RFK, Jr. siphon more of the vote from Biden than Trump. 44% of Haley’s coalition would be Biden voters, while just 33% would come from Trump voters. Similarly, 46% of RFK, Jr.’s coalition would be Biden voters and 36% from Trump. This makes clear that third-party candidates are acting as spoilers that aid Trump.
• Even after they were read positive bios for Haley and Dean Phillips as her running mate, only 21% of voters say they would even consider voting for this ticket.

4. Respondents do not want to waste their votes.

When voters are informed about the likely scenarios they will face by the fall, support for the No Labels ticket drops significantly. (Note: These questions came after we named Haley as a potential candidate, but they did not name her or Phillips in this battery.)

• Just 21% say they might vote for a No Labels candidate if their ticket is polling in 3^rd place in October - and about the same say that if the No Labels candidate fails to make the debate stage. Less than 10% were strongly inclined in that direction.
• Just 26% of voters say they may possibly vote for a No Labels candidate if they end up not making the ballot in all 50 states. Again, less than 10% felt strongly.
• Only 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters say they would risk their vote on a No Labels candidate if they believed it would help the other party win.

Conclusion: No Labels is destined to fail.

Even when we tested their dream ticket—the best candidates No Labels could hope to land (and they probably won’t get)—the ticket had zero chance of winning. Indeed, in a final re-vote at the end of the survey, Haley-Phillips garners just 8% of the vote, finishing a dismal and embarrassing fourth place, failing even to best RFK, Jr., another third-party candidate. A less well-known No Labels ticket would undoubtedly fare even worse.