Voters Drift From Both Parties in Off-Year Voter Registration

Since 2008, we have seen five very consequential years in politics, where the electoral fortunes of both parties have swung back and forth. Now we find ourselves at a moment with historically low Congressional approval ratings, and with the favorability of both parties at an unprecedented ebb. But despite what some may argue, the two-party system is not likely to change. So how are voters reacting to this political moment?

To answer this question, we looked at voter registration trends over the past five years in every state that keeps this data by party.^* Over that time period, there has been an explosion of Independents, and the trend has continued in 2013. Meanwhile, the number of registered voters of both parties has been stagnant (in some cases decreasing) in many states since 2008. And in eight states Independents are a plurality of registered voters. These figures are bolstered by recent polling, in which 46% of Americans now identify as an Independent.¹ This memo lays out the data and shows how this trend has affected the electorate in key states.

Partisan voter registration data is available in 27 states and the District of Columbia. The states included in the analysis are Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Kansas, Rhode Island, and West Virginia—states that also have partisan voter registration—have been excluded from this analysis since they did not have complete data through 2013.

#1: Independent voter registration has increased since 2012.

After the 2012 election, pundits hailed the new Democratic era, bolstered by President Obama’s four point victory and gains in the Senate. Republicans licked their wounds, conducted an internal audit, and prepared to make-over the party to attract new voters and appeal to the mainstream. But both sides appear to have fallen short. Over the past year:

• Democratic registration has decreased by 418,388, or 1%, and now stands at 41,103,668;
• Republican registration has decreased by 320,751, or 1.1%, and now stands at 28,391,584; and,
• Independent registration has increased by 268,097, or 1.1%, and now stands at 24,676,002.²

Voter Registration Changes 2012–2013

In some states, we see declines across the board—likely the result of cleaning up voter registration lists after the election (e.g., Alaska or California). In other states, voter registration has increased across the board, including fast-growing states such as Arizona and Colorado. But in places like Florida, Iowa, and Louisiana, Democratic and Republican registration is down while Independent registration has increased. This suggests that voters are actively leaving the parties, or that new voters are declining to align with either party.

Percentage Change in Voter Registration, 2012–2013, by Growth in Independents

Above, we have organized the percentage change in Independents from greatest to smallest. The cumulative percentage change for all states in the number of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents is quite minimal overall—about one percent fewer Democrats and Republicans, with a one percent increase in Independents. But the picture in the states is radically different. Independent voter registration has increased by double digits in Colorado (28%), Wyoming (25%), and Oklahoma (12%), even as the numbers of Democrats and Republicans has continued to rise. Rather than voter apathy, this suggests that citizens are spurning both parties but not disengaging from the political process entirely.

#2: Independent voter registration has soared since 2008.

Voter turnout in the 2008 election hit a high point not seen in 50 years.³ That year’s presidential election was the culmination of two pro-Democratic waves—and registration for Democrats soared. Indeed, 2008 is viewed as a high water mark in modern American politics for Democratic electoral participation. Thus, Democrats started from a position of strength.

But since then, Democratic registration has fallen by nearly half-a-million voters while Independent registration has increased by nearly 2.5 million. This means that people either affirmatively switched their registration or new enrollees opted not to align with one of the two major parties. All told, between 2008 and 2013:

• Democratic registration fell by 428,687, or 1%;
• Republican registration fell by 12,714, or 0.04%; and,
• Independent registration rose by 2,484,104, or 11.19%.

Voter Registration Changes 2008–2013

Independent voter registration rose faster than both parties in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota—14 of the 24 states under review. Democrats have shed voters while Republicans have gained in Iowa, Maine, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. Overall, there has been an 11.2% increase in Independent registration. But within some states that figure is as high as 47%.

Percentage Change in Voter Registration, 2008–2013, by Growth in Independents

Many of the most significant increases were in Mountain West states:

• Independent registration has increased by 28% in Colorado, and now stands at 1,067,516, or 35% of registered voters—outnumbering Democrats and Republicans.
• In New Mexico, registration has increased by less than a one-half of a percent for Democrats and Republicans, but it has increased by more than five percent for Independents.
• In Wyoming, Independent voter registration is up 25% in the past year.
• And in Arizona, partisan registration is up slightly, but Independent registration has risen 7.4%, with Independents now outnumbering Democrats.

Population increases may explain some of this change. But, this is also part of a larger national trend away from the parties and towards increasing numbers of Independents.

Conclusion

Approval ratings for Congress, the parties, and political leaders are all down sharply this year. The number of self-identified Independents in national polling continues to rise. Partisan voter registration data confirms these trends—Americans are increasingly voting with their feet and calling themselves “Independent.”

These changes could have a profound impact on the candidates nominated for office. Several states where Independent registration has increased over the past five years have closed primaries—think places like New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Kentucky, Wyoming, Florida, and Maryland. If the remaining partisans are ideologically pure liberals and conservatives, candidates will increasingly reflect those voters’ preferences. The result could be cyclical—ideologically homogenous electorates in closed primary states nominating ideologically pure candidates, further alienating moderates and Independents, turning off more voters, and pushing more people into the “unaffiliated” category.

Appendix A

2013 Voter Registration by Party

Appendix B

Voter Registration Data Sources