What Do Moderates Want on Economic Issues? Growth.

What are moderates thinking and how can politicians reach them on economic issues? In our first annual State of the Center poll, we surveyed 1,500 voters with an oversample of 800 moderates^* in order to dig deep into voters’ economic values, priorities, and concerns. We found several places where liberals and moderates are in broad economic agreement and other areas where there is tension.

* The poll of 1500 registered voters, including 800 self-identified moderates, was conducted by Peter Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group April 14-18, 2014. The margin of error for the total sample is +/-2.53 and higher for subgroups.

The one key takeaway? Moderates want a laser-like focus on economic growth—a focus that also appeals to many liberals. In this memo, we lay out 4 evidence points on why and how growth should be a core part of the Democratic economic narrative:

1. Moderates are favorable to Democrats who hone in on growth.
2. Moderates don’t connect income inequality to their own circumstances.
3. Moderates support public investments but are highly deficit sensitive.
4. Moderates are conflicted about government’s role in the economy.

1. Moderates are favorable to Democrats who hone in on growth.

In our polling, moderates trend slightly Democratic. That is not unexpected. In a typical state-wide or national election, Democrats need to capture nearly 60% self-identified moderates to win—given that there are significantly more conservatives than liberals in the electorate, a simple majority of moderates is often not enough for Democrats. But Democrats in our poll ran behind Republicans (39-49%) among all voters on which party is most focused on economic growth, and they only ran even among the crucial moderate voters.

Importantly, we found that both moderates (76%) and liberals (65%) are far more attracted to a Democratic candidate who is focused on economic growth than to one who is focused on economic security. And by a margin of better than two-to-one, moderates preferred a Democrat who is focused on growth over a Democrat focused on income inequality (here, liberals are divided 48% to 49%).

For many moderates, growth is a crucial message they want to hear from Democrats. And this message can unite the Democratic coalition: growth and opportunity are priorities that appeal to both moderates and liberals.

2. Moderates don’t connect income inequality to their own circumstances.

In his weekly column in The Hill, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman called income inequality a “big problem [but a] poor message."¹ In that piece, Mellman cited several reputable data points, including a 2013 Gallup survey in which 82% of voters said growing the economy was “very important, while … only 46% identified reducing the income gap as important."² Our polling underscores this finding.

We found that moderates are aware of income inequality and express concerns about it, but as real and problematic as it is, they do not see it as relevant to their lives or the lives of the middle class. They do not display animosity toward the very wealthy. Few moderates (29%) say it angers them that people earn millions of dollars year after year, and the same is true of liberals (32%). Moderates rank several other priorities higher than income inequality when asked what we need to do to strengthen the economy (reducing the deficit 38%, reducing regulations and taxes on businesses 31%, reducing income inequality 24%). Liberals, by contrast, prioritize reducing income inequality among that list.

While three-fourths of moderates believe the world is divided into haves and have-nots, they count themselves as haves (only a quarter say they are have-nots) and don’t feel the system is rigged against them personally (28% say the deck is stacked against them). Those numbers are similar among liberals (35% say they’re a have not, 28% say the deck is stacked against them).

Conversely, one of the highest scoring questions in our poll among moderates (indeed among all voters) is the basic concern that “a middle class job no longer supports a middle class life” (85% of moderates agree). This is a core problem that voters would like to see solved. We surmise that among the greatest concerns of moderates is the belief that the best days for the middle class may be in the past. Many policymakers rightly feel that this is, in part, a consequence of income inequality (some liberal voters clearly feel this way), but moderates don’t make this connection.

Finally, insofar as moderate voters are aware of the “1%,” they situate Members of Congress as charter members of that elite group—making them potentially problematic messengers of an income inequality or fairness frame.

3. Moderates support public investments but are highly deficit sensitive.

Moderates are willing to spend more on items that they feel will create economic growth and opportunity. They are supportive of additional spending for infrastructure and education—72% say we need to increase investments in those areas. But they are highly deficit sensitive and see deficit reduction as a necessary part of economic growth, ranking fiscal responsibility measures at the top of a growth strategy. A plurality chooses deficit reduction over reducing inequality or reducing regulations and taxes on businesses as the most effective way to strength our economy. They worry that Democrats spend too much and are less worried that Republicans cut too much. Six in ten say their biggest concern about having Democrats in control of government is increased spending on programs that don’t benefit them or their family or lack of action to fix the deficit. The enormous national debt is a major concern to moderates. Seventy-six percent say it’s immoral to leave our children a country that is 17 trillion dollars in debt.

Our interpretation is that an agenda that includes growth-oriented investments must have an equal dose of fiscal responsibility that goes beyond simply raising new revenue. In short, while investments matter, moderates do not see a path to economic growth that doesn’t include some meaningful measure of deficit reduction.

4. Moderates are conflicted about government’s role in the economy.

If government worked as well as liberals in our poll believed it did, moderates would be more liberal on economic issues. But they don’t believe it does. Moderates have a somewhat jaundiced view of government—hopeful but not confident in its efficacy. Fifty-four percent of moderates say that if the government is involved in something, it often goes wrong (compared to 34% of liberals), while 64% believe that the government is often an obstacle to growth and opportunity (40% of liberals agree). Overwhelmingly, liberals want to see government be more involved in the economy (75% to 17%); moderates are less sure (53% to 40%). Liberals see government clearing the way to opportunity; moderates see government often as an obstacle. Liberals see big business as a greater threat to America than big government (66%); moderates worry more about big government (52%).

The good news in our poll is that compromise is a cherished value, not just among moderates but among nearly all voters across the ideological spectrum. In addition, voters overwhelmingly believe that “doing what’s best for the country means doing things I don’t like.” Of course, compromise in the abstract is more palatable than compromise on the specifics. But it seems evident that moderates feel that hard choices affecting them are inevitable and necessary to secure our economic future.

Conclusion

Since 2001, the U.S. economy has grown at an average annual rate of 1.8%. In that 8same 13-year period, U.S. GDP growth has exceeded 3% only twice. During this same period of stagnant economic growth, middle class wages have declined.

While moderates may not be able to rattle off these statistics, they know this country is not growing economically the way it did in the past. This has limited the opportunities for the middle class and those who aspire to join it. Those fortunate enough to remain employed through this stagnant growth period have seen their wages stay in place and their costs go up, making it far more difficult for a middle class job to support a middle class existence.

To best reach moderate voters on the economy, Democrats would be helped by focusing on growth, broadly shared, so that a middle class job can once again support a middle class life.