On the Grid: 2024 In Review 12/20/24

Click HERE to subscribe to this bi-weekly newsletter.

Welcome back to On the Grid, Third Way’s bi-weekly newsletter. The US clean energy sector grew significantly in 2024, including skyrocketing electricity demand from onshored manufacturing and hyperscaling of AI data centers, new business deals to bring emerging technologies to scale, and well over $200 billion in clean tech investments. This was catalyzed by the federal investments and incentives in American clean energy over the last four years.

As we look to 2025, the landscape for clean energy could shift drastically. We don’t know what direction the incoming Trump Administration and narrow Republican margins in the Senate and House will hold. This includes the fate of tax credits and federal investments, prospects for regulatory and permitting reform,

Our focus for next year will be to defend the progress the American clean energy sector has made, seize new policy, messaging, and permitting reform opportunities, and frame how it is talked about, so the US can out-build, out-innovate, and out-earn the competition.

In this week’s newsletter, we’re reviewing the momentum we’ve built, highlighting just a few of the stories and narratives that resonated, and looking ahead to the path we’re charting next year.

Happy Holidays from Third Way’s Climate and Energy Team–we’ll see you in the New Year!

This year was a turning point for the American nuclear industry. We saw bipartisan legislation banning the import of enriched uranium from Russia, pragmatic reforms from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and massive private-sector investment in advanced nuclear technologies to help meet growing energy demand. For the first time, we’re seeing order books for advanced reactors take shape, backed by some of the world’s largest corporations. With adversaries like Russia and China dominating global nuclear markets, these are vital steps to reclaim US leadership in a critical industry.

Our Impact: This is the dawn of a new nuclear era, but it didn’t happen by accident. In 2016, we convened the first-ever Advanced Nuclear Summit alongside Senator Murkowski. Since then, we’ve been at the forefront of advancing American nuclear leadership, pushing bipartisan legislation across the finish line, including this year’s ADVANCE Act, and helping secure $2.7 billion for domestic production of nuclear fuel for advanced reactors. We’ve also been vocal about the urgency of deploying American reactors faster and the need to cut through the unnecessary red tape holding back progress. This year, we led the fight to push the NRC to reduce redundant processes that stall advanced reactor deployment and pushed the Senate to reconfirm Chairman Hanson for another term at the NRC, ensuring consistent leadership at a pivotal moment for nuclear energy.

What We’re Watching: For decades, state-backed companies in Russia and China have dominated international nuclear markets, securing decades-long agreements. If the US wants to remain competitive, then we need a smart strategy. That includes better financing for domestic nuclear projects and an export-ready fleet for our allies abroad. That’s why this year, we partnered with the US Mission to International Organizations in Vienna to convene key stakeholders and outline how the US can best compete by proactively aligning on international nonproliferation standards, working with allies to de-risk investment, and building bilateral supply chains. 

Last year, the US built just 255 miles of new transmission lines. But if we want to power our growing manufacturing base, deliver reliable clean electricity to communities across the US, and meet rising demand from data centers, we’ll need to build thousands of miles more. But, it won’t be easy. Aging infrastructure, cost allocation disputes, stalled long-term planning, and clogged interconnection queues are holding us back. And perhaps most critically–siting and permitting delays are slowing down progress. The process is long, broken, and in desperate need of reform. Without comprehensive reform, we won’t just fall short, we’ll fall behind.

Our Impact: This year, we pushed for a variety of broad policy recommendations and solutions to shore up our existing grid infrastructure and fast-track new transmission lines. We also went all in on permitting reform, working closely with key stakeholders to deliver the data and insights needed to guide smart legislative decision-making and help build out more transmission lines and clean technologies.

What We’re Watching: Like many in the energy community, we were hopeful that a permitting deal could get done in the lame-duck session. That didn’t happen because, as Sen. Joe Manchin lamented, House Republicans abandoned it. While we’re disappointed in the outcome and still unpacking what caused the deal to fall apart, we’re not quitting. We’re working with our centrist and center-right partners to develop a viable set of policies next year for permitting.

Environmental NGOs and climate advocates have long messaged clean energy almost exclusively as a climate solution, talking about reducing emissions instead of emphasizing the economic value of these technologies. That is only effective if Americans cared about climate change–but our public opinion polling finds that climate is a low-priority issue for voters, with just 4-6% ranking it as their top issue. The vast majority of Americans, however, rate the economy as their top concern.

The takeaway? To build durable support for America to build out clean energy, we must connect them to what voters actually care about. Messaging that explains why clean energy is a pocketbook issue outperforms climate-focused messaging every time.

Our Impact: We built a robust public opinion portfolio this year, demonstrating that our message is more effective and more urgent than an environmentalist framing. We then took that portfolio and briefed dozens of congressional staffers, campaign teams, candidates, and elected officials. We’re helping change the narrative on clean energy messaging. Where it’s taken hold, it is effective. Look no further than Elissa Slotkin’s sharp rebuttal of anti-EV attacks during Michigan’s sharply contested senate race.

What We’re Watching in 2025: Our team will aggressively push to shift the frame on clean energy fully toward economic context and away from being discussed as a climate issue.

Russia and China have long dominated critical clean energy supply chains, from nuclear energy to electric vehicles. Their growing influence is an enormous threat to the United States and our democratic allies globally, especially in these critical technologies. This year, we worked to build and expand bilateral partnerships with our allies to help accelerate clean energy deployment on both sides of the Atlantic, unlock critical markets, and help Europe adopt a technology-inclusive, economically competitive climate strategy that counters these threats.

Our Impact: We worked with senior government leaders from countries like Poland, Romania, and the United Kingdom to help shape clean energy strategies and strengthen partnerships, particularly with private industry. Meanwhile, our European affiliate, Carbon-Free Europe, released its third Annual Decarbonization Perspective, providing a comprehensive energy systems analysis to help the EU and its Member States achieve net-zero faster, more affordably, and in partnership with the US.

What We’re Watching in 2025: The incoming Trump Administration has signaled plans to pull the US back from Europe, NATO, and Asia, giving Russia and China room to expand their influence and dominate global markets. As Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) argues in Foreign Affairs this week, this isolationist approach poses a serious threat to US interests. Instead, McConnell calls for strengthening the military, revitalizing our domestic industrial base, and expanding diplomatic efforts, especially to counter China. While we may not agree with Sen. McConnell on how the US ended up in this vulnerable position, we share his concern: retreating puts our security and economy at risk. We need US leadership, which we’ve often described as coming in the form of the nation becoming the Arsenal of Clean Energy. Next year, we’ll be looking for more opportunities to counter this isolationist approach and ensure the US deepens global partnerships where they matter the most.

• Brian Deese, in Foreign Affairs, lays out a clean energy Marshall Plan to help the US compete in global markets and secure international leadership.
• Holly Buck, in The Jacobin, argues that the climate movement's current focus on fighting disinformation is diverting attention from more practical and necessary needs, such as addressing public concerns about the practicality and affordability of clean energy.
• Jim Tankersley in The New York Times points to the significant impact of clean energy tax credits in accelerating rapid technology deployment and attracting additional private investment.
• Rowen Price talks with the National Council of State Legislatures about how nuclear energy can alleviate energy demand pressures from data centers and the future of nuclear policy under the Biden Administration.
• Robinson Meyer, on Shift Key, talks with Jigar Shah, head of the Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office, about clean energy financing and how commercial loans are transforming the clean energy landscape.
• Julia Pyper and co-hosts, on Political Climate, chat with John Podesta about the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act two years later, exploring the upcoming challenges for the bill and strategies for Democrats to bolster support for federal clean energy policies.