The 62%: How Many Moderates Does it Take to Win the Senate?

Over the past several decades, self-proclaimed ideology and partisan voting patterns have become more highly correlated: liberals increasingly vote for Democrats and conservatives for Republicans. But that polarization story leaves a plurality of voters, moderates, out of the equation. Historically, Democrats have won more moderates than have Republicans—in part because they need to compensate for the fact that more voters identify as conservatives than as liberals in practically every state in the country. In fact, to win the White House, Democrats typically need close to 6 in 10 moderate voters to win.

To understand how these ideological divisions will impact the key 2016 Senate elections, we analyzed the share of moderate voters that Democratic and Republican candidates would need to garner in order to win in November.

Methodology Based on an analysis of exit polls, we concluded that Democratic Senate candidates typically win approximately 85% of liberals and 15% of conservatives, while Republican Senate candidates win approximately 15% of liberals and 85% of conservatives. We then took the ideological breakdown of the electorate over the past four elections, including two presidential elections and two midterm elections, and averaged them to model the likely ideological breakdown of the 2016 electorate in each state. Based on the likely ideological breakdown and likely margins among liberals and conservatives, we estimated the percent of moderate voters needed to reach a majority. Average Ideological Breakdown of the Electorate 2008–2014

This year, there are 34 Senate seats in cycle. Of those, 22 are Republican incumbents seeking reelection, 7 are Democratic incumbents seeking reelection, and 5 are open seats. Eleven of these contests have been considered battlegrounds, although some candidates’ fortunes are changing as we get closer to Election Day. This analysis focuses on those most competitive races. In those states, we found that Democrats will, on average, need more than 62% of moderate voters and Republicans will need more than 38% to cross the 50% threshold with the general electorate.

Estimated Share of Moderates Needed by Senate Candidates

There is quite a bit of variation on the “magic moderate number” by state based on differences in voter composition. In seven of the eleven states, Democrats need 60%+ of moderates to win, reaching 66% or better in Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. In four of the states, Republicans need 40%+ to win, with that figuring hitting 44% in Illinois, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. This explains why the Senate races seem to be a race to the center, with candidates on both sides touting their bipartisan credentials and trying to distinguish themselves from rhetorical bomb throwers in their respective parties.

2010 Senate Results Among Moderates

*Note: Data for North Carolina is from the 2014 Senate race as 2010 data was unavailable.

In the 2010 election, all of the Republicans who won in these competitive states received at least 40% of the moderate vote, with two exceptions: Florida and North Carolina. The Florida 2010 Senate contest was a three-way race, with former Governor Charlie Crist running as an Independent and finishing in second place behind Sen. Marco Rubio. As a result, the moderate vote was split among three candidates.

In North Carolina, drawing upon data from the 2014 match-up between former Sen Kay Hagan and current Sen. Thom Tillis, the Republican victor won with 36% of moderates. However, North Carolina is one of three states (with Arizona and Indiana) where the share of moderates in off-year elections was lower than the share of conservatives. Even in the Tea Party wave year of 2010 when these seats were last on the ballot, moderates made up a plurality of the electorate in seven of the eleven states—Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—with moderates and conservatives tied for the biggest share of the electorate in Missouri. Given the difference in political winds this year, there is little doubt moderates will play at least as big a role if not bigger in determining who controls the Senate in 2016.

Arizona

This year’s Senate contest in Arizona features five-term incumbent Republican Sen. John McCain defending his seat against Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick has served three non-contiguous terms in the House, winning in 2008 before being defeated in the 2010 Tea Party wave, then reclaiming her seat in the 2012 election. McCain is expected to prevail, but a lack of statewide grassroots organizing coupled with a problematic nominee at the top of the Republican ticket could make this a tight race.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Arizona Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Arizona in 2014.

Over the past three elections in Arizona, the statewide ideological breakdown of the electorate has averaged 40% moderate, 40% conservative, and 19% liberal.[1] Conservatives have a 2:1 lead over liberals in terms of voters in the ideological base. That means that winning moderate voters is significantly more important for Democratic candidates in Arizona than Republicans. Sen. McCain handily won a fifth term in 2010, with a coalition of 50% of moderates and 83% of conservatives. In 2012, Republican Sen. Jeff Flake defeated Richard Carmona with 38% of moderates.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Arizona, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Arizona in 2014.

If the electorate in Arizona this November matches this historical split of roughly 40% identifying as moderates, 40% as conservatives, and 19% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. McCain would need to win more than 32% of moderates to prevail. His Democratic challenger, Rep. Kirkpatrick, would need more than 68% of moderate voters to defeat him.

Florida

Florida’s 2016 Senate contest has been something of a rollercoaster, with first-term Republican incumbent Marco Rubio initially not running for reelection (owing to his failed presidential bid) before throwing his hat back in the ring over the summer. His challenger is two-term Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, who was first elected to the House in 2012. Rubio currently has the edge in this contest, however he has yet to garner a majority in surveys over the past month—meaning there may be an opening for Rep. Murphy.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Florida Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no exit poll data available for Florida in 2012. There was no statewide federal election in Florida in 2014.

We have scant exit poll data for federal elections in recent years from Florida. What we do have paints a picture of a center-right state, with moderates consistently forming a plurality of voters. Conservatives have topped off at fewer than four in ten voters, with fewer than two in ten identifying as liberals. And the one recent Senate election for which we do have data, the 2010 contest, featured a strong Independent candidate, former Gov. Charlie Crist.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Florida, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no exit poll data available for Florida in 2012. There was no statewide federal election in Florida in 2014.

If the electorate in Florida this November is split along similar lines, with roughly 45% identifying as moderates, 37% as conservatives, and 19% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Rubio would need more than 36% of moderates to prevail. His Democratic challenger, Rep. Murphy, would need more than 64% of moderate voters to defeat him.

Illinois

The 2016 Illinois Senate race features first-term incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk trying to defend his seat against two-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth. Kirk was elected in the 2010 Tea Party wave. Duckworth was first elected in 2012 and won reelection in 2014.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Illinois Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2012 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election.

As you can see from the chart above, Illinois (unlike many of the battleground Senate states) is fairly evenly divided between liberals and conservatives, with nearly half of all voters calling themselves moderate. In fact, Sen. Kirk won his Senate seat in a particularly favorable year for Republicans—conservatives made up 35% of voters, nine points higher than in the 2012 presidential election. Republicans typically need right around 45% from moderates to win in Illinois. Sen. Kirk prevailed with 44% in 2010, but four years later Republican challenger Jim Oberweis fell short and Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin won handily in 2014.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Illinois, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2012 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election.

If the electorate in Illinois this November is composed roughly of 46% identifying as moderates, 30% as conservatives, and 24% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Kirk would need more than 45% of moderates to prevail. His Democratic challenger, Rep. Duckworth, would need more than 55% of moderate voters to defeat him.

Indiana

After leaving elected office for a decade in 2000, Republican Sen. Dan Coats returned to the Senate in 2011 after Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh announced his retirement in 2010. Now that Coats is retiring, Bayh is returning to electoral politics. His opponent is U.S. Rep. Todd Young, who was elected in the 2010 Tea Party wave.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Indiana Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Indiana in 2014.

In Indiana, once again conservatives outnumber liberals. However, the number of conservatives hovers around 40%, with moderates outpacing them in presidential elections. In 2012, Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly defeated Richard Mourdock by winning 63% of moderate voters. In that election, Donnelly also won 19% of conservatives. A Libertarian candidate also garnered 5% of the conservative vote.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Indiana, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Indiana in 2014.

If the electorate in Indiana this November is split similar to past years, with roughly 41% identifying as moderates, 39% as conservatives, and 19% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, former Sen. Bayh would need more than 67% of moderates to prevail. His Republican challenger, Rep. Young, would need more than 33% of moderate voters to gain the Senate seat.

Missouri

First-term Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is defending his seat in the 2016 Missouri Senate election. Prior to being elected in 2010, Blunt served in the U.S. House of Representatives for seven terms. His challenger is first-term Secretary of State Jason Kander, who served in the Army National Guard and volunteered for a tour in Afghanistan after September 11th, 2001.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Missouri Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Missouri in 2014.

“Show-Me” State voters are center-right, with the share of liberals never rising above two in ten in recent elections. Moderates tend to outnumber conservatives in presidential elections, tying in the only recent midterm for which we have data. Democratic Sen. McCaskill defeated former Rep. Todd Akin in 2012, winning two-thirds of moderates on her path to victory.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Missouri, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Missouri in 2014.

If the electorate in Missouri this November is split similar to past elections, with roughly 42% identifying as moderates, 39% as conservatives, and 19% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Blunt would need more than 34% of moderates to prevail. His Democratic challenger, Jason Kander, would need more than 66% of moderate voters to defeat him.

Nevada

The retirement of Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid created an open race in Nevada this cycle. Three-term Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Heck is running against former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Nevada Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Nevada in 2014.

Nevada’s voters trend more liberal and less conservative in presidential years, which should help Cortez Masto. As in many other states, though, the plurality of voters in recent elections has been moderates. Sen. Reid won reelection in 2010 with two-thirds of the moderate vote. Republican Sen. Heller defeated his Democratic challenger winning 40% of moderates in 2012.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Nevada, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in Nevada in 2014.

If the electorate in Nevada this November is split with roughly 41% identifying as moderates, 36% as conservatives, and 21% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Cortez Masto would need more than 63% of moderates to prevail. Her Republican challenger, Rep. Joe Heck, would need more than 37% of moderate voters to be victorious.

New Hampshire

This year’s Senate contest in New Hampshire is one of two Senate races with a unique feature among those in the top-tier: it is a face-off between two formidable female candidates. First-term, Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte is defending the open seat she won in 2010 when former Sen. Judd Gregg retired. Her challenger is two-term sitting Gov. Maggie Hassan.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in New Hampshire Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2012 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election.

Voters in New Hampshire are overwhelmingly moderate, and of the non-moderate voters, conservatives slightly outpace liberals. This means that both parties’ candidates need significant shares of moderate voters to prevail in statewide elections. Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen won in both 2008 and 2014 with more than 55% of the moderate vote. Sen. Ayotte won in 2010 with 54% of moderates—although she likely could have won with fewer as conservatives comprised 38% of voters that year.

Senate Vote by Ideology in New Hampshire, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2012 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election.

If the electorate in New Hampshire this November is split with roughly 44% identifying as moderates, 32% as conservatives, and 24% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Ayotte would need more than 44% of moderates to prevail. Her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, would need more than 56% of moderate voters to win.

North Carolina

This year’s North Carolina Senate contest features two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr, who served in the House for five terms prior to his election to the upper chamber in 2004. His opponent is Democratic former state Rep. Deborah Ross.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in North Carolina Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: No exit poll data was available for the 2010 Senate election. Data for 2012 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election.

Voters in North Carolina are split among ideological lines, with about 40% calling themselves moderate, 40% conservative, and 20% liberal. Owing to the 2:1 advantage liberals have over conservatives, Democratic candidates running statewide need many more moderates to win than Republican candidates. Former Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan won in 2008 with 64% of the moderate vote and 19% of conservatives, but she lost a close reelection battle in 2014, when she won 59% of moderate voters.

Senate Vote by Ideology in North Carolina, Exit Polls

Note: No exit poll data was available for the 2010 Senate election. Data for 2012 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election.

If the electorate in North Carolina this November is split with roughly 40% identifying as moderates, 40% as conservatives, and 20% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Burr would need more than 32% of moderates to prevail. His Democratic challenger, Deborah Ross, would need more than 68% of moderate voters to win.

Ohio

First-term Republican incumbent Sen. Rob Portman is running for reelection in the 2016 Ohio Senate race. His challenger is former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, who was defeated in his gubernatorial re-election in 2010 by current Republican Gov. John Kasich.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Ohio Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in 2014.

A plurality of voters in all of Ohio’s recent statewide elections have been moderates, followed closely by conservatives and trailed by liberals. Owing to the larger share of conservatives than liberals, statewide Democratic candidates need more moderate support than Republican candidates in order to win. President Obama won Ohio in 2008 with 61% of the moderate vote. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown secured reelection in 2012 with 60% of moderate voters.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Ohio, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in 2014.

If the electorate in Ohio this November matches historical levels, split with roughly 43% identifying as moderates, 37% as conservatives, and 19% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Portman would need more than 36% of moderates to prevail. His Democratic challenger, former Gov. Ted Strickland, would need more than 64% of moderate voters to win.

Pennsylvania

First-term Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey is running for reelection in Pennsylvania’s 2016 Senate contest. He won a hard-fought battle in 2010 after unsuccessfully challenging former Republican (then-Democratic) Sen. Arlen Specter. Toomey previously served three terms in the House. His challenger is Katie McGinty, who ran in the Democratic primary for Governor in 2014.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Pennsylvania Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in 2014.

Pennsylvania’s voters are squarely centered, with nearly half of voters in recent elections calling themselves moderates. There are slightly more conservatives than liberals, but nowhere near the 2:1 margins seen in other key Senate states. Both Democratic and Republican candidates need sizeable shares of moderate voters to prevail in Pennsylvania. Sen. Toomey won in 2010 with 40% of moderates, when there were far fewer liberals and far more conservatives than is traditional in the state. In 2012, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey won reelection with 57% of moderates (the Republican garnered 41%), and President Obama won the state in 2008 with 58% of moderates (McCain won 41%).

Senate Vote by Ideology in Pennsylvania, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in 2014.

If the electorate in Pennsylvania this November is split with roughly 46% identifying as moderates, 31% as conservatives, and 23% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Toomey would need more than 44% of moderates to prevail (four points better than his last performance with the group). His Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty, would need more than 56% of moderate voters to prevail.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s 2016 Senate contest is a blast from the past, with former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold challenging first-term Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson to a rematch. The fact that Johnson’s defeat of Feingold happened during the 2010 Tea Party wave has given many Democrats hope that a friendlier presidential electorate will make Feingold a Senator again. Republicans are betting on the power of incumbency.

Ideological Breakdown of Voters in Wisconsin Senate Elections, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in 2014.

In recent election cycles, a plurality of Wisconsin’s voters have called themselves moderate. There are more conservatives than liberals, though, by about ten points. In 2008, President Obama won Wisconsin with 63% of the moderate vote. Sen. Johnson defeated Feingold in 2010 with 42% of moderates. First-term Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin won in 2012 with 59% of moderates.

Senate Vote by Ideology in Wisconsin, Exit Polls

Note: Data for 2008 is from the presidential contest, as there was no Senate election. There was no statewide federal election in 2014.

If the electorate in Wisconsin this November is split with roughly 43% identifying as moderates, 34% as conservatives, and 23% as liberals, and assuming that approximately 85% of liberals vote for the Democrat and 85% of conservatives vote for the Republican, Sen. Johnson would need more than 41% of moderates to prevail. His Democratic challenger, former Sen. Russ Feingold, would need more than 59% of moderate voters to prevail.

Appendix: Data Sources

Arizona

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-AZ: Arizona Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-AZ. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-AZ: Arizona Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-AZ. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-AZ: Arizona Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-AZ. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Florida

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-F: Florida Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-FL. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-FL: Florida Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-FL. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Illinois

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-IL: Illinois Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-IL. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-IL: Illinois Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-IL. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-IL: Illinois Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-IL. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

“Exit Polls, Senate: Illinois,” CNN, Published November 5, 2014, Accessed October 31, 2016. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/IL/senate/.

Indiana

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-IN: Indiana Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-IN. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-IN: Indiana Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-IN. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-IN: Indiana Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-IN. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Missouri

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-MO: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-MO. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-MO: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-MO. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-MO: Missouri Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-MO. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Nevada

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-NV. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-NV. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-NV: Nevada Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-NV. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

New Hampshire

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-NH: New Hampshire Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-NH. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-NH: New Hampshire Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-NH. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-NH: New Hampshire Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-NH. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

“Exit Polls, Senate: New Hampshire,” CNN, Published November 5, 2014, Accessed October 31, 2016. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/NH/senate/.

North Carolina

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-NC: North Carolina Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-NC. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-NC: North Carolina Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-NC. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

“Exit Polls, Senate: North Carolina,” CNN, Published November 5, 2014, Accessed October 31, 2016. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/NC/senate/.

Ohio

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-OH: Ohio Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-OH. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-OH: Ohio Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-OH. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-OH: Ohio Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-OH. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Pennsylvania

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-PA: Pennsylvania Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-PA. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-PA: Pennsylvania Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-PA. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-PA: Pennsylvania Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-PA. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

Wisconsin

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2008-STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2008 [dataset]. USMI2008-STELEC-WI. Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2010-STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2010 [dataset]. USMI2010-STELEC-WI. Edison Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.

National Election Pool (ABC News/Associated Press/CBS News/CNN/Fox News/NBC News). National Election Pool Poll # 2012-STELEC-WI: Wisconsin Election Day Exit Poll, Nov, 2012 [dataset]. USMI2012-STELEC-WI. Edison Media Research [producer]. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.