Charging Forward: How Policymakers Can Support the Domestic Manufacture of Electric Vehicle Batteries

Report
Published August 17, 2020

Charging Forward: How Policymakers Can Support the Domestic Manufacture of Electric Vehicle Batteries

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Salina Liu
Intern, Climate and Energy Program
  • Salina Liu, Intern, Climate and Energy Program

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Electric vehicles (EV) are projected to make up 58% of total global vehicle sales in 2040.1 This growth in EVs is essential to reach net-zero emissions by midcentury and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As the United States looks to bolster its domestic EV industry to reduce emissions and take advantage of an enormous economic opportunity, we should focus on the most important part of the EV: the battery.

Currently, China dominates the world in EV battery manufacturing. Around 73% of global EV batteries are supplied by China, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused massive interruptions in China’s manufacturing capabilities and has made companies realize the importance of having a more diverse supply chain. EV battery producers have started to search for new manufacturing locations.2 The United States should take this opportunity to attract battery producers through significant policy support for domestic EV battery manufacturing.   

This report discusses the current state of EVs and EV batteries and how the economic crisis from the pandemic has heavily impaired these industries; the major players in battery manufacturing; and the benefits and challenges for the United States in bolstering its domestic battery manufacturing capabilities. We then provide a suite of policy recommendations to make the United States an attractive location for EV battery companies to site their facilities. 

Current Status of Electric Vehicles

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, EV technology was on the fast track. Global EV sales grew rapidly, increasing by 65% from 1.3 million units to 2.1 million units sold from 2017-2018 and steadily growing in 2019 (Figure 1).3 This growth in EV sales didn’t come about spontaneously: carmakers invested at least $90 billion into the technology by 2018.4

Image Alt Text The COVID-19 pandemic stalled many EV projects and manufacturing operations around the globe, however, EV sales still have managed to increase. A recent study performed in May 2020 projects that the global EV battery market will increase to $35.36 billion in 2023 after recovering from this year’s market decline.5 One reason EV sales are set to recover is that many countries have rapidly responded to the crises with policies to bolster EV production. According to the head of the BloombergNEF intelligent mobility team, the success of the EV markets in all countries is largely policy-driven.6 For example, European Union members recently ramped up their existing policy support for EV production.7 Thanks to EV subsidies that EU members included in their stimulus packages, they were able to increase European EV market shares by more than double the amount they had in 2019.8

While almost all other developed economies are investing in EV production because they see the great economic and climate benefits, the United States lags behind in enacting policies that would bolster its own domestic production. These countries’  commitment to strengthening their position in the EV market is clearly reflected in their policies. Meanwhile, the US government has done little to facilitate companies’ ability to break into the EV market during this time. In 2019, plug-in EV sales were only 2% of total light duty vehicle sales in the United States.9 US EV sales are predicted to remain flat in 2020 then increase slowly if we stick to current policies—falling behind the projected sales in Europe and China.10

Focusing in on the EV Battery 

It is clear from the pace of investment and policy support from the rest of the world that EVs are our future. As a country, we need to be prepared to transition from dirty gasoline vehicles to cleaner, more energy efficient electric vehicles. For America to become stronger in both a domestic and global EV market, we need to deploy EVs that are more efficient and more affordable to consumers. One of the best ways to do so would be to target US EV battery production.

The battery is a major component of the EV. While internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles rely on multiple parts to convert gasoline into energy to power them, EVs only rely on their batteries and electrical networks for energy. EV battery technology is responsible for making EVs more efficient than typical ICEs of gasoline vehicles. Compared to the average ICE vehicle, which is only able to use 12-30% of energy stored in gasoline, an electric vehicle is able to utilize over 77% of electrical energy stored in the battery.11 For EVs to be sustainable replacements of ICE vehicles in the transportation sector, their batteries need to be further developed so that they can be more energy efficient and affordable. 

Every year, researchers have worked relentlessly to develop new and improved battery designs that increase the efficiency of current batteries, use more accessible materials in their designs, and lower their environmental impact.12 As a result, researchers have been able to increase the quality of batteries while also reducing their price by 87% percent since 2010.13

The cost of an EV is closely linked to the cost of the battery. An EV battery alone makes up a quarter of the total price of an EV.14 Assuming an EV battery costs $156 per kilowatt-hour (kWh),15 a light-duty EV with a typical 55 kWh battery would cost approximately $14,000 more than a small ICE vehicle. This significant price gap is one that most consumers are unable to accept, as most consumers are only willing to pay an extra 10% above the price of a similar gasoline vehicle.16 Even when costs of batteries are projected to drop from $156/ kWh to $100/kWh by 2024,17 there is still much work to be done in the United States to be better equipped in meeting this initial goal. 

With Tesla coming out with research on new battery chemistries that can lower the cost of EV batteries to as low as $60-80/kWh by 2030,18 and the Department of Energy (DOE) setting a research goal to get the cost of the battery pack down to $80/kWh,19 the United States needs to build the right facilities and supply chains to be able to manufacture batteries at this cost. 

The assembly of electric vehicle batteries involves three parts: the battery cells,20 the battery modules, and the battery pack (the EV battery itself).21 This report focuses mainly on the production of lithium-ion battery cells, the most commonly used in today’s EVs. Lithium-ion battery cells are used due to their high energy density and efficiency. They are typically made of a combination of lithium and the following metals: cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, copper, and aluminium.22

When trying to understand the cost of EV batteries, it is important to consider what materials they are made of and how these materials affect the final cost of the battery.23 In a study from the Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, scientists found that raw material24 often made up over 50% of the cost of the EV batteries and are the main cause of EV battery price fluctuations. This is particularly concerning because the prices of raw materials, such as lithium and cobalt, have jumped.25 As a result of the increasing prices of these materials, every country interested in EVs has been working on ways to secure their supply chain and research alternative materials. The countries that started early in securing their supply chains now dominate global EV battery production.26

Solid State Batteries: Game-Changing Technology

A new type of energy storage, known as the solid-state battery, is emerging in the EV sphere. This technology could be a game-changer because its design and performance addresses a number of concerns with lithium-ion batteries. Unlike lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries do not require its battery cell to contain any liquid. Instead, they rely on a solid chemical arrangement to charge and discharge the battery. This characteristic of the solid-state battery provides a number of benefits: 

Higher Energy Density: Solid-state batteries can contain the same battery capacity while being half the size of lithium-ion batteries.27

Faster Charge: The batteries can conduct energy faster than liquid-containing lithium-ion batteries at room temperature.28

Safer Usage: They are non-flammable, making them safer to transport.29

Lower Cost: Solid-state battery development provides more flexibility for experimenting with affordable materials such as zinc, aluminum, and sulfur.30

(Potential) Longer Lifespan: Their chemical structure reduces the growth of dendrites, which damage the battery over time and create greater risk of the battery catching fire.31 However, companies close to producing these batteries are still experimenting with the design to fully address this issue.32

Solid-state batteries will likely be able to compete with lithium-ion batteries in the next two to five years.33 This is largely thanks to private companies investing millions in solid-state battery development.34 The market for solid-state batteries is expected to grow over $6 billion by 2030.35

While developers have proven this technology, they still face cost and scalability challenges. Researchers are now investing more on manufacturing equipment and processes to make mass-production of solid-state batteries scalable and cost-effective.36 While companies have developed working battery designs, they may be unable to deploy them until 2030 if their manufacturing and supply chains cannot scale up to meet the level needed to produce them.37

Who Produces EV Batteries and Where?

The major players in all parts of the EV battery sector, with the exception of Tesla, are Asian countries and this type of dominance has not shifted for several years. In 2018, 93% of the world’s EV batteries were supplied by China, Japan, and Korea.38 In the years prior, these three countries also remained the largest exporters of lithium batteries.39 China now has over 50% control of global lithium cell production capacity, meaning the majority of EV companies rely on China as their primary source for their EV battery supply chain.40

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For a more detailed list of sources used in this table,41 click here.

This is subject to change as European countries have started to invest more in their own EV battery production to stay on track with their transportation decarbonization goals.42 At this point, it seems like every other major economy except the United States is actively pursuing policies that would advance its ability to produce EV technology. If the United States continues down the path of negligence towards domestic EV battery manufacturing, we may lose the chance to get our foot in the door. 

How COVID-19 Affected the Rankings

When the pandemic spread across China, it landed a big blow on China’s manufacturing capabilities. Despite these setbacks, China is still positioned to dominate future EV battery production. According to the International Energy Agency, China will make up approximately 62.5% of the global EV production capacity by 2022,43 which is eight times North America’s projected capacity. China may also recover from the economic effects of the pandemic faster than other countries: the Wall Street Journal has predicted China will be the first major economy to bounce back from an economic recession, based on previous signs of its economic expansion in 2019.44

The temporary halt to China’s manufacturing capabilities also significantly impacted the supply chain of EV battery companies around the world. Over the course of the past few months, EV battery companies have realized that their heavy reliance on China is not ideal.45 More than ever, companies are seeing the benefits of having a diversified supply chain. In 2020, LG Chem, an ambitious South Korean company, surpassed the world’s largest EV battery producer, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), by establishing a diverse supply chain that spread production capabilities across several continents.46

It’s Time to Recharge America’s Battery Industry

Right now, the United States only produces 12% of the world’s lithium-ion batteries.47 And the companies that do produce their EV batteries in the United States still rely on supply chains from other countries, mainly China, for battery-grade raw materials. In recent years, US-Chinese relations have grown increasingly tense: there is a possibility that the United States will be unable to access materials vital to EV batteries. A Benchmark Minerals Intelligence study found that China not only supplies 73% of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, but it also controls 80% of global refining raw materials critical to battery assembly.48

China’s ability to stay on top in the EV sector is attributed to its strong grip on global EV battery supply chains. If China decides to use its pricing power or cut off trade with the United States completely, we would be put in an extremely vulnerable position.49

This is not the only problem that US EV battery manufacturers face. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other critical materials have significantly increased in price because the reserves of these natural resources are finite and mostly located outside of the United States. Our country’s options are becoming limited.

As noted above, many top EV battery companies have recognized the disadvantage of solely relying on one country to produce the majority of their batteries.50 Some of these companies have considered expanding their EV battery production into the United States or other countries.51 If these companies decide to build their facilities elsewhere, it would be extremely difficult for the United States to catch up to other countries. 

The United States must start thinking about how to accelerate its current manufacturing capacity to meet the demand for EVs in the near term. We have a fleeting chance to break into the global battery market and reap the enormous economic benefits. By creating a secure supply chain, the United States can create a sustainable, robust, domestic EV market (Figure 2).

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The United States has already invested federal resources in researching EV technologies and bolstering EV sales. Our federal government has spent $7.6 billion in EV purchase tax credits as of 2019.52 Amid the Great Recession, the government provided $2.3 billion in 48C Advanced Energy Manufacturing tax credits in 2009 and53 authorized $25 billion through the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) Loan Program in 2011.54 In addition to these programs, the government spends several billions of dollars in funding for the DOE’s EV battery R&D every year. The United States has also invested $9 million in the development of solid-state batteries since 2013.55

However, while other countries have set clear goals to mass-produce battery technologies, the United States shows little sign of developing domestic manufacturing capabilities to capitalize on public investments. We should be building upon our efforts instead of forfeiting the ever-growing EV market to other countries. 

Benefits from Domestic EV Battery Manufacturing

1. More Resilient Supply Chains

By increasing the number of EV battery manufacturing facilities here, we can build a strong supply chain for domestic EV manufacturing and develop the resources to produce battery designs in a more streamlined manner. The United States could also address supply chain concerns by further developing manufacturing capabilities for different battery types, such as solid-state batteries. This type of battery has the potential to have a longer lifespan,56 reducing the number of batteries that companies must produce to replace old ones. And it is made of materials more accessible than those used in lithium-ion batteries,57 simplifying our ability to develop our own supply chains.

2. Economic Opportunity in Global Markets

Global demand for EV batteries will grow by 1,755 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2030—a 14-fold increase from the current demand.58 By providing policy support and investing more now in battery manufacturing, the United States will be in a better position to compete in this growing global market. The Chinese company CATL’s ability to transform into the world’s largest EV battery producer through incentives is a good example of how supportive domestic manufacturing policies can propel companies to the top of global markets.59  

3. Job Opportunities in Struggling States

Building EV battery manufacturing facilities can benefit states by providing manufacturing jobs, supporting manufacturing-reliant economies, and promoting cleaner manufacturing.60 States with the following would be good fits for EV battery manufacturing sites:

  • States with Existing Vehicle or Technology Manufacturing Facilities: Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida,61 would be good places to build EV battery plants because they already have vehicle manufacturing facilities. These would be ideal locations because some EV companies like Tesla are looking to integrate battery production into their vehicle manufacturing process while others are looking to co-locate their battery and vehicle assembly. Additionally, these states have the skilled workforces capable of adapting quickly to battery manufacturing. These new facilities can provide sustained job opportunities as part of a transition to EVs. 
  • States That Need More Manufacturing Jobs: Pennsylvania,62 Indiana, and Ohio63 can benefit from the construction of new manufacturing facilities, because manufacturing jobs in those regions have been in steady decline the past decade.
  • States Investing in Renewable Energy Deployment and Manufacturing: Nevada, Tennessee, California, Washington, and Oregon, can allow for EV battery plants to run on clean energy.64

4. More Affordable EVs 

EV battery costs constitute the largest share of total EV cost. In order for us to lower the price of lithium-ion EV batteries to $80/ kWh65 and to possibly manufacture solid-state batteries that cost as low as $30-40/kWh,66 the United States needs to build more domestic manufacturing facilities. Domestic EV battery manufacturing would lower the cost of batteries, which would subsequently lower the cost of electric vehicles, making them more affordable. 

5. Reduced Emissions

Producing major EV components such as the battery domestically would drive down vehicle costs and encourage the purchase of more EVs. Around 59% of US transportation emissions come from light-duty vehicles, so replacing ICE vehicles with EVs will significantly reduce carbon pollution.67

6. Simultaneously Advancing Energy Storage 

EV battery developers can design batteries that store excess grid energy generated from renewable energy sources. Batteries can also be reused and integrated into storage once the battery can no longer be used in the EV.68

Challenges to Encouraging Domestic EV Battery Manufacturing

There are four main challenges that the United States must overcome to benefit from domestic EV battery manufacturing:

1. Low Demand for EVs

This is one of the largest challenges the country faces when trying to domestically manufacture EV batteries. For there to be increased production of EV batteries in America, there needs to be a greater number of EV sales. Local demand for EVs is a primary motivator for companies to build their battery plants in a given location. Companies selling EVs in the United States have just recently begun to address the gap between consumer needs and EV model development, but they still need to do more to increase EV purchases.69 If this gap continues to grow, there would not be enough demand for EVs to motivate more companies to domestically manufacture their batteries.

2. Insufficient Funds 

The cost of developing and building EV manufacturing facilities is a barrier to domestic EV battery manufacturing. It costs approximately $100 million to build an EV battery plant that has a capacity of producing 1 GWh. This means an average EV battery plant with a 10 GWh capacity would cost approximately $1 billion to build in the United States.70 It is difficult for private companies to cover the entire cost without some additional incentives to build in a new location. And the federal government is not allocating significant public funds to battery manufacturing facilities.

3. Insecure Supply Chain

America does not have secure supply chains to meet the battery needs of EV companies. The United States has not invested significantly in mining the raw materials EV batteries require, whereas China is both a lithium producer and a major shareholder of the top global lithium producers in Chile, Australia, and Argentina.71 Without a reliable supply chain insulated from the evolving political and economic relationship with China, companies will be reluctant to establish battery manufacturing facilities in the United States. 

4. Bringing Technologies from Innovation to Deployment

America has long prided itself for being a global leader in innovation, but it frequently fails to see innovative technologies through to commercialization and deployment. While the United States supports many brilliant researchers who are able to advance EV battery technology,72 the country lacks the manufacturing specializations necessary to produce EV batteries. We continue to rely on other countries’ advanced manufacturing capabilities and import the technologies we need. In order to reap the full benefits of our own innovation efforts, we must also invest in deployment and manufacturing of EV batteries.

How the Government Can Better Support Battery Manufacturing in the United States: Policy Recommendations

1. Support R&D Projects that Improve EV Battery Manufacturing Maturity  

The DOE should follow the funding model of the Department of Defense (DOD) for their research programs (Figure 3). Like the DOD, the DOE should allocate more funding to projects in their later stages, until the product can be ready to manufacture.
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One of the reasons why the United States is still moving at a sluggish pace in the global EV battery manufacturing race is that many DOE programs fail to account for manufacturing maturity in their research missions and stop financially supporting companies that need strong financial backing for their EV batteries to be deployed. The lack of clarity in program missions creates inconsistent streams of funding73 to EV battery manufacturing R&D efforts and takes away from our country’s ability to produce more EVs and lower the cost of domestic production.

In July 2020, DOE created a new program called the Energy Storage Grand Challenge to address all aspects of strengthening our country’s EV sector.74 However, the federal government should still allocate more funding toward existing programs such as the:

  • Advanced Manufacturing Office program for EV batteries
  • EV battery program in the Vehicle Technologies Office75
  • Advanced Management and Protection of Energy Storage Devices program in ARPA-E76

This way, all existing programs will be able to fund projects until they reach manufacturing maturity, which adds to DOE’s efforts to successfully deploy more EVs in our country.

2. Subsidize EV Purchases

  • Extend & Modify EV Purchase Tax Credits: The federal government should extend the existing EV tax credit for 5 years and eliminate the 200,000 limit on vehicle sales eligible for the $2,500-7,500 EV purchase tax credit.77 The tax credits should also be made a point-of-sale credit that is administered by the dealer, where the amount of the credit is deducted from the new EV sale price, instead of provided as a credit when the customer files their tax returns. This rebate could also be available for the purchase of used EVs, making it open to lower- and middle-income buyers. The amount of the rebate could also be larger for lower- and middle-income buyers to make the policy more progressive.78 By extending and modifying the federal EV tax credit, we can grow our domestic EV market and contribute to meeting our emissions goals.79

3. Revive the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program

  • Keep the ATVM Program: The Trump Administration proposed to cut this program from the 2021 fiscal budget, criticizing it for causing bankruptcies for two companies.80 However, the Administration fails to account for the thousands of jobs created by the program at Ford, Nissan, and Tesla.81 And it fails to account for this program’s ability to propel Tesla into becoming a global leader in EVs and a company that has single-handedly kept the US EV sector afloat in the global market.82 Cutting this program is exactly the opposite of what we should do if we want to maintain our global position and allow market leaders to retool and build new EV factories and EV battery plants in the US.
  • Make More Vehicle Manufacturers Eligible for Loans: By opening the loan program to medium and heavy-duty truck manufacturers and their suppliers, we would enable US leadership in domestically manufacturing this rapidly growing segment of electric transportation.83
  • Amend the ATVM Program Guidance: This program has only given out five loans in the last nine years and has $17.7 billion left to loan to companies that want to produce advanced vehicle technologies.84 The main issue with this program is that it is too strictly administered, in a way that limits its ability to support suppliers to various advanced technology vehicles.85  This overly restrictive reading of the statute is at odds with its purpose to broadly support American competitiveness in EV manufacturing.

4. Incentivize Domestic EV Battery Manufacturing

  • Reinstate the 48C Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit: The federal government should consider reviving this 30% investment tax credit at $3 billion every year for 5 years.86 By funding the 48C tax credit, the federal government would not only revive clean energy projects that were stalled by the COVID-19 pandemic,87 but also compel more overseas EV battery companies to build their EV battery plants in the United States.88 This would be ideal because research suggests it is more cost-effective for overseas companies to build EV manufacturing facilities here than it is for our country to build our own from the ground up.89

5. Ensure the Security of EV Battery Materials Supply Chain 

  • Speed Up Lithium Extraction Permitting in the United States: The Department of Interior has determined the United States has lithium deposits that can yield over 15,000 metric tons of lithium when mined. They can be found in Arkansas, California, Nevada, North Carolina, and Utah.90 The domestic permitting process can take 10 years, which prevents projects from progressing quickly. If we can start sourcing our own materials, it would help us become more self-reliant.91
  • Support R&D for Raw Material Extraction: The federal government should look to launch research projects on minerals extraction in collaboration with our national labs and the DOE.92 For many companies in the United States, it would be ideal to secure their supply chains by domestically sourcing critical materials. This poses a challenge because our country has not done enough research on technologies suitable for safe and effective extraction of raw materials from the specific types of geological formations in US lithium deposits.93 Supporting research on extraction methods would contribute to building a better foundation for attempts at domestic EV battery manufacturing.94

6. Provide Jobs Training for EV Manufacturing Plants

Labor unions have legitimate concerns about the EV industry displacing workers due to the decreased number of required parts that go in a car.95 For a smoother transition in vehicle parts manufacturing and assembly, the federal government should create a program in partnership with EV companies to train the current and future EV manufacturing workforce. EV manufacturing jobs must be good, well-paying jobs and unions are a critical partner in any domestic transition to cleaner forms of transportation.

The Race Is On: What Are We Waiting For?

When trying to understand why it is necessary to build more domestic EV battery plants, we need to recognize the deep connections it has with aspects across the entire EV market. Without policies that support EVs, R&D in EV battery technology and raw minerals, mineral extraction, and jobs training, the United States will be unable to sustain domestic EV battery manufacturing. We need to create policies that get us closer to creating a self-reinforcing system where government funds stimulate the EV market and directly drive production of innovative EV products. This type of policy support will strengthen our country’s EV sector over time and contribute to creating good, well-paying jobs as the United States recovers from this economic crisis. The federal government has stood on the sidelines for too long, failing to encourage any sort of major growth in the EV battery market.96 It is time we join the global race to dominate the EV market. 

Endnotes

  1. Colin McKerracher, et al. “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 Executive Summary.”BloombergNEF,  https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo-2020/page/1. Accessed July 30, 2020.

  2. Joe Rooney. “Could COVID-19 Move More EV Battery Manufacturing To The U.S.?” InsideEVs, April 16, 2020, https://insideevs.com/news/410044/covid-19-ev-battery-production-future/. Accessed July 13, 2020.

  3. Thomas Gersdorf, et al. “McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index: Europe cushions a global plunge in EV sales.” McKinsey & Company, July 17, 2020, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales#. Accessed July 28, 2020.

  4. Paul Lienert. “Global carmakers to invest at least $90 billion in electric vehicles.” Reuters, January 15, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-electric/global-carmakers-to-invest-at-least-90-billion-in-electric-vehicles-idUSKBN1F42NW. Accessed July 20, 2020.

  5. Abstract of “Worldwide Electric Vehicle Batteries Industry to 2030 - Identify Growth Segments for Investment.” The Business Research Company. PR Newswire, July 17, 2020, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/worldwide-electric-vehicle-batteries-industry-to-2030---identify-growth-segments-for-investment-301095439.html. Accessed July 27, 2020.

  6. Julia Pyper. “Global EV Market: Already on the Road to Recovery?” Greentech Media, Wood Mackenzie Business, June 9, 2020, https://www.greentechmedia .com/articles/read/ global-ev-market-on-the-road-to-recovery. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  7. The McKinsey & Company article outlines how the European Union’s growth in EV sales is due to their stricter vehicle emissions standards and “strong regulatory tailwinds and high purchase incentives” for EV. See: Thomas Gersdorf, et al. “McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index: Europe cushions a global plunge in EV sales.” McKinsey & Company, July 17, 2020, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/mckinsey-electric-vehicle-index-europe-cushions-a-global-plunge-in-ev-sales#. Accessed July 28, 2020.

  8. David McHugh. “Europe’s shift to electric cars picks up despite recession.”AP News, July 15, 2020, https://apnews.com/763a90050892e6538fbf03986795fb7c. Accessed July 17, 2020.

  9. “FOTW #1136, June 1, 2020: Plug-in Vehicle Sales Accounted for about 2% of all Light-Duty Vehicle Sales in the United States in 2019.” United States Department of Energy, June 1, 2020, https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1136-june-1-2020-plug-vehicle-sales-accounted-about-2-all-light-duty. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  10. Angus McCrone. “Energy, Vehicles, Sustainability – 10 Predictions for 2020.” BloombergNEF, January 16, 2020, https://about.bnef.com/blog/energy-vehicles-sustainability-10-predictions-for-2020/. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  11. “All-Electric Vehicles.” United States Department of Energy, https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml. Accessed July 16, 2020.

  12. Chris Hall. “Future batteries, coming soon: Charge in seconds, last months and power over the air.” Pocket-lint Ltd, July 21, 2020,https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air. Accessed July 24, 2020.

  13. “Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up With Market Average At $156/kWh In 2019.” Bloomberg NEF, December 3, 2019, https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/. Accessed July 20, 2020. 

  14. Venkat Viswanathan, et al. “The road to electric vehicles with lower sticker prices than gas cars – battery costs explained.” The Conversation, July 27, 2020, https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-electric-vehicles-with-lower-sticker-prices-than-gas-cars-battery-costs-explained-137196#:~:text=Assuming%20batteries%20represent%20a%20quarter,models%20of%20gas%2Dpowered%20cars. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  15. “Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up With Market Average At $156/kWh In 2019.” Bloomberg NEF, December 3, 2019, https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/. Accessed July 20, 2020.

  16. Bengt Halvorson. “Cost remains the biggest barrier against EV adoption, study-finds.” Green Car Reports, January 13, 2020, https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126706_cost-remains-the-biggest-barrier-against-ev-adoption-study-finds. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  17. Ibid.

  18. Tim Mullaney. “Tesla and the science behind the next-generation, lower-cost, ‘million-mile’ electric-car battery.” Consumer News and Business Channel. NBCUniversal Worldwide News Group, Jun 30, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/tesla-and-the-science-of-low-cost-next-gen-ev-million-mile-battery.html. Accessed August 11, 2020.

  19. “Batteries.” Vehicle Technologies Office. United States Department of Energy, https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/batteries. Accessed August 11, 2020.

  20. The shapes of EV batteries depend on the specific chemicals used to build the battery cell and how efficiently the battery can charge and discharge. They can be cylindrical, prismatic, button/ coin-shaped, and pouch shaped. See: “BU-301a: Types of Battery Cells.” Battery University. Cadex Electronics Inc., April 14, 2019, https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_battery_cells.  Accessed July 17, 2020.

  21. One EV battery is a battery pack; within the battery pack, there are battery modules, which are protective frames that contain multiple battery cells. See: “The Composition of EV Batteries: Cells? Modules? Packs? Let’s Understand Properly!” Samsung SDI, https://www.samsungsdi.com/column/all/detail/54344.html. Accessed July 20, 2020.

  22. Abstract of “Lithium-ion Batteries: Market Development and Raw Materials.” Roskill Information Services. PR Newswire, January 27, 2017, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/raw-materials-in-focus-as-lithium-ion-battery-market-development-moves-up-a-gear-611953095.html. Accessed July 21, 2020.

  23. There are many types of battery cell types that are differentiated by their chemical compositions such as the nickel-metal hydride battery and the lead-acid battery. See: “Batteries for Hybrid and Plug-In Electric Vehicles.” United States Department of Energy, https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_batteries.html. Accessed July 8, 2020.

  24. In 2018, lithium carbonate cost $16.50 kg-1, cobalt cost $80.49 kg-1, nickel cost $8.93 kg-1, manganese cost $2.06 kg-1, aluminum cost $1.89 kg-1. See: Marc Wentker,et al. “A Bottom-Up Approach to Lithium-Ion Battery Cost Modeling with a Focus on Cathode Active Materials.” Energies, no. 504, 2019. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, February 15, 2019, https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/3/504/htm. Accessed July 31, 2020.

  25. James Eddy, et al. “Recharging economies: The EV-battery manufacturing outlook for Europe.” McKinsey & Company, June 3, 2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/recharging-economies-the-ev-battery-manufacturing-outlook-for-europe#. Accessed July 22, 2020.

  26.  “Who is Winning the Global Lithium Ion Battery Arms Race?” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, January 26, 2019, https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/who-is-winning-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-arms-race/. Accessed July 23, 2020.

  27. Lindsey Walter. Interview with Jeff Sakamoto on Solid-State Batteries, January 2019. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  28. Ibid.

  29. Charlie Bloch, et al. “Breakthrough Batteries: Powering the Era of Clean Electrification.” Rocky Mountain Institute, 2019, https://www.rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/rmi_breakthrough_batteries.pdf. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  30. Ibid.

  31. Kevin Clemens. “Three Ways That Lithium Dendrites Grow.” Design News. Informa Markets, November 5, 2018, https://www.designnews.com/electronics-test/three-ways-lithium-dendrites-grow. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  32. Roberto Baldwin. “Toyota’s Quick-Charging Solid-State Battery Coming in 2025.”Car and Driver. Hearst Digital Media, July 27, 2020, https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33435923/toyota-solid-state-battery-2025/. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  33. Abstract of “Revolutionary Solid-state Batteries Will Create a $6 Billion Market in 2030.”IDTechEx. PRNewswire, July 27, 2020, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/revolutionary-solid-state-batteries-will-create-a-6-billion-market-in-2030-301100364.html. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  34. Jason Deign. “Investors Still Betting on Next Big Energy Storage Technology: Solid-State Batteries.” Greentech Media, Wood Mackenzie Business, July 8, 2020, https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-storage-companies-quietly-grow-bets-on-solid-state-batteries. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  35. Abstract of “Revolutionary Solid-state Batteries Will Create a $6 Billion Market in 2030.”IDTechEx. PRNewswire, July 27, 2020, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/revolutionary-solid-state-batteries-will-create-a-6-billion-market-in-2030-301100364.html. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  36. April Gocha. “Roadmap to commercialize all-solid-state batteries.” The American Ceramic Society, April 14, 2020, https://ceramics.org/ceramic-tech-today/energy-1/roadmap-to-commercialize-all-solid-state-batteries. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  37. River Davis. “A Smaller, More Powerful Battery Begins to Charge Devices.” The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-smaller-more-powerful-battery-begins-to-charge-devices-11584280800. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  38. David Coffin and Jeff Horowitz. “The Supply Chain for Electric Vehicle Batteries.”Journal of International Commerce and Economics, December 2018. United States International Trade Commission, https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/journals/the_supply_chain_for_electric_vehicle_batteries.pdf. Accessed July 22, 2020

  39.  “Who is Winning the Global Lithium Ion Battery Arms Race?” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, January 26, 2019, https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/who-is-winning-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-arms-race/. Accessed July 23, 2020.

  40.  Even LG Chem, the current lead in EV battery production relies heavily on China, it produces approximately 56% of its batteries in Chinese manufacturing facilities. See: Stan Lee. “50% of LG Chem’s batteries made in China.” The Elec, November 6, 2019,https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.htmlidxno=581#:~:text=50%25%20of%20LG%20Chem's%20batteries,ELEC%2C%20Korea%20Electronics%20Industry%20Media&text=LG%20Chem's%20EV%20battery%20plant,according%20to%20figures%20on%20Nov. Accessed July 31, 2020.

  41. Heekyong Yang and Hyunjoo Jin. “Factbox: The world's biggest electric vehicle battery makers.” Reuters, November 26, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-factbox/factbox-the-worlds-biggest-electric-vehicle-battery-makers-idUSKBN1Y02JG. Accessed August 14, 2020.

  42. Nikolas Soulopoulos, et al. “Main Findings From the BNEF Summit Munich 2020.” BloombergNEF. Bloomberg Finance L.P., June 2, 2020. PDF file. Accessed July 24, 2020.

  43. “Commissioned EV and energy storage lithium-ion battery cell production capacity by region, and associated annual investment, 2010-2022.” International Energy Agency, April 10, 2020, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/commissioned-ev-and-energy-storage-lithium-ion-battery-cell-production-capacity-by-region-and-associated-annual-investment-2010-2022. Accessed July 23, 2020.

  44. Jonathan Cheng. “China Is First Major Economy to Return to Growth Since Coronavirus Pandemic.” The Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-first-major-economy-to-return-to-growth-since-coronavirus-pandemic-11594865317. Accessed July 23, 2020.

  45. Joe Rooney. “Could COVID-19 Move More EV Battery Manufacturing To The U.S.?” InsideEVs, April 16, 2020, https://insideevs.com/news/410044/covid-19-ev-battery-production-future/. Accessed July 13, 2020.

  46. “Who is Winning the Global Lithium Ion Battery Arms Race?” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, January 26, 2019, https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/who-is-winning-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-arms-race/. Accessed July 23, 2020.

  47. Robert Rapier. “Why China Is Dominating Lithium-Ion Battery Production.” Forbes, August 4, 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/08/04/why-china-is-dominating-lithium-ion-battery-production/#6d38b7ae3786. Accessed July 21, 2020.

  48.  “China Controls Sway of Electric Vehicle Power Through Battery Chemicals, Cathode and Anode Production.” Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, May 6, 2020, https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/china-controls-sway-of-electric-vehicle-power-through-battery-chemicals-cathode-and-anode-production/. Accessed July 23, 2020.

  49. Marco Rubio. “America’s Security Needs a Cooperative Rebuilding of Rare-Earth Supply Chains.” Foreign Policy. The Slate Group, June 17, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/17/marco-rubio-rare-earth-minerals-china/. Accessed July 23, 2020.

  50. Rooney, Joe. “Could COVID-19 Move More EV Battery Manufacturing To The U.S.?” InsideEVs, April 16, 2020, https://insideevs.com/news/410044/covid-19-ev-battery-production-future/. Accessed July 13, 2020.

  51. Hyunjoo Jin and Joyce Lee. “South Korea's Hyundai Motor, LG Chem considering EV battery JV in Indonesia: source.” Reuters, June 22, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-lg-chem-battery/south-koreas-hyundai-motor-lg-chem-considering-ev-battery-jv-in-indonesia-source-idUSKBN23U09F. Accessed July 28, 2020.

  52. “Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out Tracker By Automaker.” EVAdoption, June 2019, https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/federal-ev-tax-credit-phase-out-tracker-by-automaker/. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  53. “48C Phase II Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit Program Fact Sheet.” United States Department of Energy, 2013, https://www.energy.gov/downloads/48c-phase-ii-advanced-energy-manufacturing-tax-credit-program-fact-sheet. Accessed July 24, 2020.

  54. “Advanced Technology Vehicle Loan Program Needs Enhanced Oversight and Performance Measures.” United States Government Accountability Office, June 9, 2011, https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-745T. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  55. This estimate is taken from the three solid-state battery projects that are listed in the RANGE program in ARPA-E. See: “Robust Affordable Next Generation Energy Storage Systems.” Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy. United States Department of Energy, 2013, https://www.arpa-e.energy.gov/?q%3Darpa-e programs/range&sa=D&ust=1597248855877000&usg=AFQjCNGvNUOZHRYTWOSRkm2QU2QzATrpfA. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  56. Charlie Bloch, et al. “Breakthrough Batteries: Powering the Era of Clean Electrification.” Rocky Mountain Institute, 2019, https://www.rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/rmi_breakthrough_batteries.pdf. Accessed August 12, 2020.  

  57. Ibid.

  58. Colin McKerracher, et al. “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 Executive Summary.”BloombergNEF,  https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo-2020/page/1?teaser=yes. Accessed July 30, 2020.

  59. Trefor Moss. “The Key to Electric Cars Is Batteries. One Chinese Firm Dominates the Industry.” The Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-positioned-itself-to-dominate-the-future-of-electric-cars-11572804489?tesla=y. Accessed July 24, 2020.

  60. Tesla’s gigafactory in Nevada will be primarily powered by solar energy. See: “Tesla Gigafactory.” Tesla, https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory. Accessed July 27, 2020.

  61. Josh Freed and Matt Bright. “Appealing to Battleground States with Policies for Clean Manufacturing and Industry.” Third Way, April 20, 2020. https://www.thirdway.org/memo/appealing-to-battleground-states-with-policies-for-clean-manufacturing-and-industry. Accessed July 24, 2020.

  62.  Ibid.

  63. Michael Hicks. “Opinion: Factory jobs are again shrinking in industrial Midwestern states.” Market Watch, October 1, 2019, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/factory-jobs-are-again-shrinking-in-industrial-midwestern-states-2019-09-25. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  64. These states were selected by cross-checking three maps from the DOE on the use of renewables in each state, a map from the National Association of Manufacturers on State Manufacturing Data, and a map from the Auto Alliance on Vehicle Manufacture locations. See:

    “Every State is an Auto State.” Auto Alliance. Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, 2020,  https://autoalliance.org/in-your-state/. Accessed July 27, 2020.

    “State Manufacturing Data.” National Association of Manufacturers, 2020, https://www.nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/. Accessed July 27, 2020. 

    “Renewable Energy Production By State.” United States Department of Energy, https://www.energy.gov/maps/renewable-energy-production-state. Accessed July 27, 2020.

  65. “Batteries.” Vehicle Technologies Office. United States Department of Energy, https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/batteries. Accessed August 11, 2020.

  66. Charlie Bloch, et al. “Breakthrough Batteries: Powering the Era of Clean Electrification.” Rocky Mountain Institute, 2019, https://www.rmi.org/wp content/uploads/2019/10/rmi_breakthrough_batteries.pdf. Accessed August 12, 2020. 

  67. Lindsey Walter. “Eliminating US Climate Pollution: Consider the Source.” Third Way, June 26, 2019,  https://www.thirdway.org/memo/eliminating-us-climate-pollution-consider-the-source. Accessed August 7, 2020.

  68. “Battery Second Use for Plug-In Electric Vehicles.” The National Renewable Energy Laboratory. United States Department of Energy, https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/battery-second-use.html. Accessed July 24, 2020

  69. Michael Woodward, et al. “Electric vehicles: Setting a course for 2030.” Deloitte Insights, July 28, 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/insights/focus/future-of-mobility/electric-vehicle-trends-2030.html. Accessed August 13, 2020.

  70. Jane Lee and Heekyong Yang. “SK Innovation plans second EV battery plant in U.S., expansion in Hungary.” Reuters, January 9, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tech-ces-sk-innovation/sk-innovation-plans-second-ev-battery-plant-in-u-s-expansion-in-hungary-idUSKBN1Z82QB. Accessed July 27, 2020.

  71. Laura Lombrana and Joe Deaux. “The U.S. Has a Battery Problem in the Race for Electric Car Supremacy.” Bloomberg, April 29, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-29/u-s-lags-china-expands-in-race-for-electric-vehicle-dominance. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  72. “Advancing U.S. Battery Manufacturing and a Domestic Critical Minerals Supply Chains.” United States Department of Energy, October 4, 2019, https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/advancing-us-battery-manufacturing-and-domestic-critical-minerals-supply-chains. Accessed July 24, 2020.

  73. Mario Urdaneta. “Funding for Federal Manufacturing Technology R&D.” Medium. MForesight, July 10, 2019, https://medium.com/@MForesight/funding-for-federal-manufacturing-technology-r-d-58bfccaf3d1c. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  74. “Energy Storage Grand Challenge Draft Roadmap.” United States Department of Energy, July 2020, https://www.energy.gov/energy-storage-grand-challenge/downloads/energy-storage-grand-challenge-draft-roadmap. Accessed August 3, 2020.

  75. “Batteries.” Vehicle Technologies Office. United States Department of Energy, https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/batteries. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  76. “Advanced Management and Protection of Energy Storage Devices.” Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy. United States Department of Energy, 2012, https://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/amped. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  77. Josh Freed and Lindsey Walter. “Policy Priorities to Stimulate the Economy and Cut Climate Pollution.” Third Way, July 13, 2020, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/policy-priorities-to-stimulate-the-economy-and-cut-climate-pollution. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  78.  Ibid.

  79. Aarian Marshall. “Want a Tax Credit for Buying an Electric Vehicle? Move Fast.” Wired. Conde Nast, December 18, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/want-tax-credit-buying-electric-vehicle-move-fast/. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  80. Bradley Berman. “Trump budget kills loan program sought by EV-maker Lordstown Motors.” Electrek, February 12, 2020, https://electrek.co/2020/02/12/trump-budget-kills-loan-program-sought-by-ev-maker-lordstown-motors/. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  81. “The Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) Loan Program: A Success Building the Next Generation of Technology in America .” BlueGreen Alliance, March 25, 2015, https://www.bluegreenalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ATVM-Fact-Sheet-vFINAL-updated.pdf. Accessed August 14, 2020.

  82. Fred Lambert. “Tesla owns more than half the US market, keeps electric car sales growing.” Electrek, February 4, 2020, https://electrek.co/2020/02/04/tesla-electric-car-sales-us-market-share/#:~:text=Tesla%20is%20keeping%20the%20US,60%25%20of%20the%20US%20market. Accessed August 11, 2020.

  83. Josh Freed and Lindsey Walter. “Policy Priorities to Stimulate the Economy and Cut Climate Pollution.” Third Way, July 13, 2020, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/policy-priorities-to-stimulate-the-economy-and-cut-climate-pollution. Accessed August 11, 2020.

  84. “Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program.” Loan Programs Office. United States Department of Energy, January 2020, https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/01/f70/DOE-LPO-ATVM-Jan2020.pdf. Accessed August 6, 2020

  85. Mark Harris. “The loan program that buoyed Tesla, stalled out, and landed on Trump’s cut list.” ArsTechnica. Conde Nast, March 14, 2018, https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/03/trump-may-kill-the-federal-green-car-program-but-it-was-already-on-the-ropes/. Accessed August 6, 2020.

  86. Alexander Laska, et al. “Building Back Better: Investing in Clean Infrastructure to Drive Economic Recovery.” Third Way, May 7, 2020, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/building-back-better-investing- in-clean-infrastructure-to-drive-economic-recovery. Accessed August 11, 2020.

  87. Mike Jacobs. “Congress: Clean Energy Manufacturing and Building Is Our Future. Fund It.” Union of  Concerned Scientists, April 21, 2020, https://blog.ucsusa.org/mike-jacobs/congress-clean-energy-manufacturing-and-building-is-our-future-fund-it. Accessed July 29, 2020.

  88.  “48C FAQ Updated Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.” Novoco, February 28, 2013, https://www.novoco.com/sites/default/files/atoms/files/48c_faq_retc_updated_022813.pdf. Accessed July 28, 2020.

  89. Donald Chung, et al. “Automotive Lithium-ion Cell Manufacturing: Regional Cost Structures and Supply Chain Considerations.” Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center. United States Department of Energy, April 2016, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66086.pdf. Accessed July 29, 2020.

  90. Ibid.

  91. Slide 64 from NREL Critical Materials Presentation See: Alex Grant. “Americans Love Lithium: But How Should We Mine it in the 21st Century?” Jade Cove Partners. United States Department of Energy, June 29, 2020, https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/assets/pdfs/battery-critical-materials-presentation.pdf. Accessed August 7, 2020.

  92. Ibid.

  93. Nicole Mordant. “U.S. electric car sector, wary of China, seeks more domestic lithium.” Reuters, June 12, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-minerals-lithium/u-s-electric-car-sector-wary-of-china-seeks-more-domestic-lithium-idUSKBN1J82HS&sa=D&ust=1597297177731000&usg=AFQjCNG1rOCY2_zRQ0DZO6retyhz63n0uw. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  94. Kevin Vanstone. “How Direct Lithium Extraction Can Drive US Lithium Production.” Investing News Media. Dig Media, June 24, 2020, https://investingnews.com/innspired/direct-lithium-extraction-driving-us-lithium-supply/. Accessed August 12, 2020.

  95. Ian Thibodeau. “Shift to electric vehicles will radically change auto factories.” The Detroit News, September 5, 2019, https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2019/09/05/shift-electric-vehicles-radically-change-auto-factories/2208961001/. Accessed August 4, 2020.

  96. Ibid.

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