Five Reasons Not to Join No Labels’ Spoiler Bid

Any political leader thinking of accepting the No Labels presidential nomination should think again. The No Labels bid is not a ticket to the White House. It’s not even a pathway to national prominence and respect. Instead, whomever signs on to this doomed enterprise will end this cycle as a spoiler, a villain, and a joke: Jill Stein 2.0.

1. No Labels has no “path to victory” and would be a spoiler for Trump.

• Their own polling says they would lose and be a spoiler for Trump. No Labels’ data shows their ticket comes in a distant third. Biden and Trump are virtually tied in a two-way race, but the addition of their ticket hands Trump a five-point advantage.
• New polling shows that even a No Labels’ dream candidate—a well-known, respected Republican like Nikki Haley—comes in a distant fourth. Third Way’s recent poll shows that Nikki Haley garners just 9% in a four-way race, trailing even RFK, Jr. (13%). A Haley-led ticket siphons 11 points more from Biden than from Trump.
• Their Electoral College map isn’t credible. No Labels’ so-called “path to victory” defies credulity. Their map projects to win states Biden dominated in 2020, like RI (+21), WA (+19), IL (+17), and NJ (+16). If they fail in even one of those, they’d need to win states Biden carried by 30 points or more. It’s a fantasy.
• Independent experts agree: Analysts from the Wall Street Journal, NBC, CNN, the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Harvard’s Institute of Politics, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Washington Post,  Puck News, and the NY Times all have said No Labels has no hope of winning and would be a spoiler.

2. So instead, No Labels is planning to force a contingent election, where their ticket would re-elect Donald Trump in the most dangerous way possible...

• They know it’s hopeless. Despite long insisting they would field a third-party presidential ticket only if they thought it could win, the No Labels CEO recently told The Atlantic: “This organization is not in it to win it.”
• Since they can’t win, their chief strategist has said publicly they are preparing for a contingent election. No Labels believes if they can win one or two states and deny both Trump and Biden 270 electoral votes, they would have leverage to cut a deal by promising their electors’ support to whichever candidate they deem more worthy.
• This scheme would fail, and Trump would win. Republicans control a majority of state delegations and almost certainly will again in January 2025. The constitution requires a Congressional vote be taken if no candidate has at least 270 electoral votes. No Labels’ plan would hand Trump the win after epic chaos and confusion.

3 ….while handing the No Labels candidate a huge mess.

• They are way behind on their ballot access plan. To date, No Labels has only secured ballot access in 16 states, less than half of where they projected to be by the end of last year. They will presumably leave it to their candidate to handle the remaining 34.
• They will turn over $0. Because No Labels has used a legal fig leaf to proceed so far as a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, they have been legally barred from raising money into a joint campaign account. So, their candidate will have less than eight months to build a war chest from scratch, one large enough to take on two presidents and a Kennedy, among others.

• No Labels’ claims to be able to pull their ticket as late as August are a sword hanging over their candidate’s campaign.They either don’t understand or aren’t being honest about who controls their ballot line. If they withhold the nomination paperwork until just before submission deadlines, the No Labels Party would have unprecedented power over their nominee for months as they build a campaign not knowing if it will go forward. And once signatures are submitted, No Labels loses control in critical battlegrounds. Wisconsin and Michigan do not accept withdrawals after paperwork is submitted and in other swing states, withdrawal must happen nearly immediately.

• They are embroiled in controversy. In a preposterous letter to the Department of Justice, No Labels alleged that Third Way and our allies have engaged a RICO-level criminal conspiracy. If DOJ investigates, their candidates will inherit a legal hornets’ nest that would include an examination of No Labels’ entire operation, including their legally questionable structure.

4. All of this is why top-tier politicians are rejecting No Labels’ ticket.

• Three No Labels co-chairs have parted ways with the group.
• Joe Manchin is convinced No Labels will be a spoiler. “‘[I]t is going to basically work as a spoiler,’ he said. ‘Right now, if you can’t get on 50 states and you’re going to basically hit in some of the battleground states that could be very detrimental to what the outcome would be…’”
• Larry Hogan stepped down from No Labels out of frustration. “Larry Hogan, the Republican former governor of Maryland, quit the No Labels board last month over frustration that power and information were being hoarded by group leadership…‘It’s been far less organized than he expected it to be’ and ‘he doesn’t see a plan coming together,’ a person familiar with Hogan’s thinking told CNN.”
• Pat McCrory quit as the group prepares to launch a ticket. News that the former North Carolina governor resigned broke as No Labels planned to announce plans for a committee to select their candidate.
• Nikki Haley “has no interest in No Labels.”  After their national director practically begged her to join them, saying, “Nikki Haley is somebody we’d definitely be interested in.” Haley rejected their offer, responding she “has no interest in No Labels.”
• Kyrsten Sinema couldn’t say no fast enough after announcing her retirement. “Kyrsten Sinema will NOT run on the No Labels ticket. ‘I’m not running for president,’” she told reporters and insisted “she isn’t going to change her mind.”
• Mitt Romney says that No Labels can’t win and will help Trump. Romney said that he lobbies his colleagues “continuously that it would only elect Trump.” He has opined that “a third-party candidate [in 2024] would make it more likely that it’s just a spoiler and it would not be successful in electing someone.”

5. Except for Trump and MAGA extremists, who are rooting for No Labels to help him win.

• Donald Trump sees No Labels as a gift to his campaign. He posted on Truth Social that Romney and Manchin would “make a great No Labels Team” during the recent State of the Union. When asked about No Labels, Trump shared his view on third parties, noting “many of them help me a lot.”
• The far right is cheering on No Labels. Trump’s campaign manager Chris LaCivita made clear, “All of the elements of the third-party run are coming out of [Biden’s] coalition, not ours.” Former Trump Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany stated, “third-party candidates may be Joe’s undoing.”

Conclusion

Prospective No Labels candidates should make no mistake: their nomination is a poisoned chalice. They will be running an impossible race and creating an enormous risk. And their reputations will be permanently defined by this destructive failure.