Pricey Projections: The Cost of Trump's Tariffs

Don’t be fooled by the endless on-again-off-again tariff news: President Trump’s actions have raised tariffs to their highest level in over a century. Prices on everything from groceries to clothes to medicine will increase. Consumer confidence and business confidence are already cratering, and a recession is likely.

Below, we summarize the implications of Trump’s tariffs as measured by  12 mainstream organizations. In light of these numbers, every legislator—Democrats, Independents, and Republicans—must stand up for American families facing spiraling cost increases and support legislation to stop the Trump Slump from hurting families and our economy even more.

Cost to Families

Tariffs will “amount to an average tax increase of $1,243 per US household in 2025.” (Tax Foundation)

Real income for the average taxpayer would drop by about $2,900 in 2026. (Tax Policy Center)

“A middle-income household faces a $22K lifetime loss.” (Penn Wharton Budget Model)

“The cost of Trump’s massive tariffs will be $4,600 per year for the typical American family.” (Center for American Progress)

“‘Reciprocal’ tariffs alone would cost U.S. consumers and businesses roughly $371.4 billion annually.” (American Action Forum)

Tariffs will increase consumer prices by 2.9% in the short-run, and households will lose $4,700 in purchasing power. (Yale Budget Lab)

Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China will “be a tax increase of more than $1,200 a year” for US households. (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Tariffs are expected to add $2,500 - $4,500 to the cost of small sedans made in North America and $5,000 - $8,500 to the cost of mid-sized vehicles. Cars imported from overseas could face up to $20,000 in additional costs. (Anderson Economic Group)

Cost to the Economy

GDP will drop by 1.4% in 2025. “This would be driven by a large increase in inflation throwing the brakes on consumption as an engine of growth.” (Boston Consulting Group)

GDP will drop by 0.8% and 671,000 jobs will be lost. (Tax Foundation)

Trump’s tariffs “will reduce long-run GDP by about 6% and wages by 5%.” (Penn Wharton Budget Model)

GDP will drop 1.1 percentage points over the year. (Yale Budget Lab)

Tariffs “would add 2.5% inflation and reduce GDP by 0.5% in the first two years.” (Morgan Stanley)

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada will lead to the loss of 177,000 US jobs, rising to over 400,000 job losses from retaliation. Inflation will rise by over 1.3 percentage points. (Brookings)

Tariffs will raise manufacturing employment by 100,000 jobs but reduce employment overall by five times as much, approximately 500,000 jobs. (Goldman Sachs)